Forecasting Vietnam’s electric load profile to 2030
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vu.nguyenhoangminh@uah.edu.vnKeywords:
Electric load profile, Clustering, Load pattern, Forecasting, VietnamAbstract
Long term load profile forecasting is really difficult but very nessesary for dynamic programing in power system planning. The purpose of this paper is to forecaste load profile of electric power system of Vietnam to 2030. Kmax - Kmin algorithm combining with expert selection are applied to findout load patterns of power system in 2006, 2010, 2012, and 2014. Similarity of load curve shapes of the patterns are recognised, and be used for forecating.
The results show that there are 8 load paterns in the past from 2006. In which, load paterns in years of 2010, 2012, and 2014 have same shapes or “rules”. They are used to forcaste load profile of those paterns to 2030. Total load demands (GWH) come from the forcasted load profile are less than 2% difference with corresponding given load demands from previous study. Theses results are quite worldwide acceptable for this kind of study.
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